Call it a Feeling

So first off, I am back.  On October 22nd my thesis was turned in, and all of my administrative stuff was dealt with by October 26th.  There is a funny story near the end about a class that did not actually exist, a professor in England, YouTube, and how scary Google is, but that is for another day. Over the next few months I will be dedicating quite a bit of my time to CFLF so expect to be sick of me very, very quickly.

Anyways, I’ve got a feeling about tomorrow, a feeling that things wont be as bad as everyone thinks.  Yes I think the Dems will probably lose the house, but I don’t think there will be the 50-60 seat wave that everyone (including my guru of numbers at 538) is saying.  Here is why

  1. The senate picture is improving.  West Virginia looks like it will stay blue, Jon Ralston, the master of Nevada politics, is betting on Reid to pull through, Boxer is probably going to trounce Fiorina, Murray was really never in doubt in Washington state (this is my opinion as Dino Rossi has become a perennial just loser in the state). The governor picture tells a similar story, Ted Strikland has clawed back from a  17 point deficit to make Ohio competitive, Florida looks like it will probably go blue, and California, once thought to be extremely competitive now looks like it will be a blow out for Brown. If so many statewide races are become competitive or swinging democratic that were not expected to, why should this statewide success not trickle down to the congressional district level?
  2. Second, I keep hearing on cable that “behind the scenes”, democrats are predicting 50-60 for republicans.  Now, we could take this at face value as a prediction of what the republicans are going to win, or we could take this as a way for the democrats to set up the republicans for the appearance of defeat.  If the consensus is that the GOP will win 55 seats, and they only win around 45, the election could be seen as a democrat victory.  Likewise, earlier this week Michael Steele was talking about how 39 house seats would be a success, an obvious attempt to decrease expectations.

So those are just my thoughts on tomorrow, I admit I am betting the long-shot, and there is a good chance I could be completely wrong.  The good news is we will find out tomorrow

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