The “Bradley Effect” in Reverse

Created: September 17th, 2008 | Written By: DrGail

Much has been made of the Bradley Effect and its role in pre-election polling. For those needing a refresher, the Bradley Effect is

Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.

The CW is that Obama’s likely results will be about 2 percentage points below what the advance polling suggests.

But what if the reverse is now true, 26 years later?

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